Santiago Ponzinibbio vs Sean Strickland
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
30-10-0Record31-7-0
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height6'1"
73″Reach76"
170 lbsWeight185 lbs
American Top TeamTeamXtreme Couture
What's at stake
Sean Strickland is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Santiago Ponzinibbio carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+16→ 1714
If they lose-8→ 1690
If they win+8→ 1831
If they lose-16→ 1807
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1719 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1741 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Santiago PonzinibbioSean Strickland
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Sean Strickland73%
Santiago Ponzinibbio 27%Elo baseline: 67%
The Combat Edge model makes Sean Strickland a 73% favorite over Santiago Ponzinibbio in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (67%).
Sean Strickland holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1823 to 1698, a 125-point edge.
Santiago Ponzinibbio enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Sean Strickland enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Santiago Ponzinibbio finishes 77% of wins inside the distance, Sean Strickland 52%.
Sean Strickland carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.