Combat Edge Intelligence

Santiago Ponzinibbio vs Wendell Oliveira

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

30-10-0Record31-16-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'11"
73″ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
American Top TeamTeamWar Machine

What's at stake

Santiago Ponzinibbio is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +4 while a loss costs more — Wendell Oliveira carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Santiago PonzinibbioNow 1698
If they win+4→ 1702
If they lose-20→ 1678
Wendell OliveiraNow 1434
If they win+26→ 1460
If they lose-6→ 1428

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1719 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1593 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.78
Sig. strikes / min
3.77
42%
Strike accuracy
48%
4.68
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.40
62%
Strike defense
48%
0.60
Takedown avg.
0
12%
Takedown accuracy
0%
71%
Takedown defense
100%
0
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Santiago PonzinibbioWendell Oliveira
1500160017002020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

17 (57%)
KO/TKO
12 (39%)
6 (20%)
Submission
4 (13%)
7 (23%)
Decision
15 (48%)

Combat Edge model read

Santiago Ponzinibbio89%
Wendell Oliveira 11%Elo baseline: 82%

The Combat Edge model makes Santiago Ponzinibbio a 89% favorite over Wendell Oliveira in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (82%).

Santiago Ponzinibbio holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1698 to 1434, a 264-point edge.

Santiago Ponzinibbio enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Wendell Oliveira enters on a 6-fight loss streak.

Santiago Ponzinibbio finishes 77% of wins inside the distance, Wendell Oliveira 52%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.