Santiago Ponzinibbio vs Wendell Oliveira
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
30-9-0Record31-16-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'11"
73″ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
American Top TeamTeamWar Machine
What's at stake
Santiago Ponzinibbio is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +4 while a loss costs more — Wendell Oliveira carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+4→ 1716
If they lose-20→ 1692
If they win+26→ 1470
If they lose-6→ 1438
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1721 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1588 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Santiago PonzinibbioWendell Oliveira
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Santiago Ponzinibbio83%
Wendell Oliveira 17%Elo baseline: 82%
The Combat Edge model makes Santiago Ponzinibbio a 83% favorite over Wendell Oliveira in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (82%).
Santiago Ponzinibbio holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1712 to 1444, a 268-point edge.
Wendell Oliveira enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Santiago Ponzinibbio finishes 77% of wins inside the distance, Wendell Oliveira 52%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.