Combat Edge Intelligence

Sean Soriano vs Tatsuya Kawajiri

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

15-9-0Record37-14-2
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height5'7"
70"Reach69.00
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamT-Blood

What's at stake

Tatsuya Kawajiri is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Sean Soriano carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Sean SorianoNow 1569
If they win+23→ 1592
If they lose-9→ 1560
Tatsuya KawajiriNow 1727
If they win+7→ 1734
If they lose-17→ 1710

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1558 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1655 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.18
Sig. strikes / min
2.04
62%
Strike accuracy
45%
2.14
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.01
56%
Strike defense
51%
1.33
Takedown avg.
3.63
56%
Takedown accuracy
49%
53%
Takedown defense
64%
0
Submission avg.
1.12

Trajectory

Sean SorianoTatsuya Kawajiri
15501600165017001750201720182019202020212022

Win method breakdown

8 (53%)
KO/TKO
12 (33%)
4 (27%)
Submission
10 (28%)
3 (20%)
Decision
14 (39%)

Combat Edge model read

Tatsuya Kawajiri78%
Sean Soriano 22%Elo baseline: 71%

The Combat Edge model makes Tatsuya Kawajiri a 78% favorite over Sean Soriano in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (71%).

Tatsuya Kawajiri holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1727 to 1569, a 158-point edge.

Sean Soriano enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Sean Soriano finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Tatsuya Kawajiri 61%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.