Combat Edge Intelligence

Sebastian Polanco vs Sirwan Kakai

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

3-3-1Record12-5-0
FeatherweightDivisionBantamweight
5'9"Height5'6"
-ReachTBD
145 lbsWeight135 lbs
Demon TeamTeamGBG MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Sebastian PolancoNow 1501
If they win+24→ 1525
If they lose-24→ 1477
Sirwan KakaiNow 1498
If they win+24→ 1522
If they lose-24→ 1474

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1520 · 6 fightsPre-fight Elo1628 · 3 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
3.57
TBD
Strike accuracy
41%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.63
TBD
Strike defense
62%
TBD
Takedown avg.
4
TBD
Takedown accuracy
42%
TBD
Takedown defense
83%
TBD
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Sebastian PolancoSirwan Kakai
1500155020162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (33%)
KO/TKO
4 (33%)
0 (0%)
Submission
6 (50%)
2 (67%)
Decision
2 (17%)

Combat Edge model read

Sebastian Polanco60%
Sirwan Kakai 40%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Sebastian Polanco a 60% favorite over Sirwan Kakai in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1501 vs 1498), separated by just 3 points.

Sebastian Polanco enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Sirwan Kakai enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Sebastian Polanco finishes 33% of wins inside the distance, Sirwan Kakai 83%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.