Sergei Pavlovich vs Tom Aspinall
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
21-3-0Record15-3-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'5"
84"Reach78"
260 lbsWeight251 lbs
Eagles MMATeamTeam Kaobon
What's at stake
Sergei Pavlovich is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Tom Aspinall carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1823
If they lose-18→ 1791
If they win+18→ 1793
If they lose-14→ 1761
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1730 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1701 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Sergei PavlovichTom Aspinall
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Sergei Pavlovich60%
Tom Aspinall 40%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Sergei Pavlovich a 60% favorite over Tom Aspinall in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Sergei Pavlovich holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1809 to 1775, a 34-point edge.
Sergei Pavlovich enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Tom Aspinall enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Sergei Pavlovich finishes 76% of wins inside the distance, Tom Aspinall 100%.
Sergei Pavlovich and Tom Aspinall share 2 common opponents: Alexander Volkov and Curtis Blaydes.
Sergei Pavlovich carries a 6-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.