Combat Edge Intelligence

Sergey Morozov vs Umar Nurmagomedov

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

19-5-0Record20-1-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'6"Height5'8"
67"Reach69"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
American Top TeamTeamEagles MMA

What's at stake

Umar Nurmagomedov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Sergey Morozov carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Sergey MorozovNow 1673
If they win+22→ 1695
If they lose-10→ 1663
Umar NurmagomedovNow 1822
If they win+10→ 1832
If they lose-22→ 1800

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1587 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1717 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.01
Sig. strikes / min
3.86
43%
Strike accuracy
56%
2.97
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.86
61%
Strike defense
61%
3.63
Takedown avg.
4.03
32%
Takedown accuracy
8%
68%
Takedown defense
79%
0
Submission avg.
0.24

Trajectory

Sergey MorozovUmar Nurmagomedov
165017001750180020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

8 (42%)
KO/TKO
2 (10%)
3 (16%)
Submission
7 (35%)
8 (42%)
Decision
11 (55%)

Combat Edge model read

Umar Nurmagomedov92%
Sergey Morozov 8%Elo baseline: 70%

The Combat Edge model makes Umar Nurmagomedov a 92% favorite over Sergey Morozov in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (70%).

Umar Nurmagomedov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1822 to 1673, a 149-point edge.

Sergey Morozov enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Umar Nurmagomedov enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Sergey Morozov finishes 58% of wins inside the distance, Umar Nurmagomedov 45%.

Umar Nurmagomedov carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.