Serghei Spivac vs Tai Tuivasa
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-7-0Record14-11-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'2"
78"Reach75"
256 lbsWeight265 lbs
What's at stake
Serghei Spivac is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Tai Tuivasa carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1720
If they lose-21→ 1688
If they win+21→ 1619
If they lose-11→ 1587
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1725 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1715 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Serghei SpivacTai Tuivasa
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Serghei Spivac71%
Tai Tuivasa 29%Elo baseline: 65%
The Combat Edge model makes Serghei Spivac a 71% favorite over Tai Tuivasa in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (65%).
Serghei Spivac holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1709 to 1598, a 111-point edge.
Tai Tuivasa enters on a 8-fight loss streak.
Serghei Spivac finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, Tai Tuivasa 93%.
Serghei Spivac and Tai Tuivasa share 4 common opponents: Marcin Tybura, Ciryl Gane, Derrick Lewis and Augusto Sakai.
Serghei Spivac carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.