Serghei Spivac vs Tom Aspinall
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-6-0Record15-3-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'5"
78"Reach78"
256 lbsWeight251 lbs
Polar Bear TeamTeamTeam Kaobon
What's at stake
Tom Aspinall is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Serghei Spivac carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1741
If they lose-14→ 1709
If they win+14→ 1789
If they lose-18→ 1757
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1724 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1701 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Serghei SpivacTom Aspinall
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Tom Aspinall59%
Serghei Spivac 41%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Tom Aspinall a 59% favorite over Serghei Spivac in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Tom Aspinall holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1775 to 1723, a 52-point edge.
Tom Aspinall enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Serghei Spivac finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, Tom Aspinall 100%.
Serghei Spivac and Tom Aspinall share 1 common opponent: Marcin Tybura.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.