Sergio Moraes vs Tim Means
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-7-1Record33-17-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height6'2"
72,0"Reach75"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Brazilian TKOTeamFit NHB
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1657
If they lose-16→ 1625
If they win+12→ 1658
If they lose-12→ 1634
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1673 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1672 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Sergio MoraesTim Means
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Sergio Moraes53%
Tim Means 47%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Sergio Moraes a 53% favorite over Tim Means in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Tim Means's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1641 vs 1646), separated by just 5 points.
Sergio Moraes enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Tim Means enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Sergio Moraes finishes 64% of wins inside the distance, Tim Means 76%.
Tim Means carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.