Sergio Moraes vs Warlley Alves
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-7-1Record14-8-0
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height5'11"
72,0"Reach72,0"
170 lbsWeight186 lbs
Brazilian TKOTeamRizzo RVT
What's at stake
Sergio Moraes is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Warlley Alves carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1656
If they lose-17→ 1624
If they win+17→ 1642
If they lose-15→ 1610
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1673 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1649 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Sergio MoraesWarlley Alves
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Sergio Moraes52%
Warlley Alves 48%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes Sergio Moraes a 52% favorite over Warlley Alves in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
Sergio Moraes holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1641 to 1625, a 16-point edge.
Sergio Moraes enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Warlley Alves enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Sergio Moraes finishes 64% of wins inside the distance, Warlley Alves 71%.
Sergio Moraes and Warlley Alves share 1 common opponent: James Krause.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.