Sergio Moraes vs Zak Ottow
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-7-1Record20-8-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'11"
72,0"Reach40,5"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Brazilian TKOTeamPura Vida BJJ
What's at stake
Zak Ottow is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Sergio Moraes carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1658
If they lose-15→ 1626
If they win+11→ 1671
If they lose-13→ 1647
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1673 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1619 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Sergio MoraesZak Ottow
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Zak Ottow60%
Sergio Moraes 40%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Zak Ottow a 60% favorite over Sergio Moraes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Zak Ottow holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1660 to 1641, a 19-point edge.
Sergio Moraes enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Sergio Moraes finishes 64% of wins inside the distance, Zak Ottow 75%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.