Seth Baczynski vs Simeon Thoresen
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
21-16-0Record17-6-1
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
6'3"Height6'1"
TBDReachTBD
185 lbsWeight170 lbs
What's at stake
Simeon Thoresen is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Seth Baczynski carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1567
If they lose-11→ 1543
If they win+15→ 1599
If they lose-17→ 1567
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1555 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1511 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Seth BaczynskiSimeon Thoresen
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Seth Baczynski56%
Simeon Thoresen 44%Elo baseline: 46%
The Combat Edge model makes Seth Baczynski a 56% favorite over Simeon Thoresen in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Simeon Thoresen's way (46%).
Simeon Thoresen holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1584 to 1554, a 30-point edge.
Seth Baczynski enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Simeon Thoresen enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Seth Baczynski finishes 90% of wins inside the distance, Simeon Thoresen 94%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.