Seth Baczynski vs Thiago Alves
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
21-16-0Record23-15-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
6'3"Height5'10"
TBDReach70,0"
185 lbsWeight170 lbs
Power MMA TeamTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Thiago Alves is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Seth Baczynski carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1567
If they lose-11→ 1543
If they win+11→ 1583
If they lose-13→ 1559
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1555 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1650 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Seth BaczynskiThiago Alves
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Thiago Alves60%
Seth Baczynski 40%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Thiago Alves a 60% favorite over Seth Baczynski in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Thiago Alves holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1572 to 1554, a 18-point edge.
Seth Baczynski enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Thiago Alves enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Seth Baczynski finishes 90% of wins inside the distance, Thiago Alves 61%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.