Shaheen Santana vs Tristan Arenal
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
8-3-0Record7-4-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
6'1"Height5'9"
TBDReachTBD
148 lbsWeight156 lbs
MMA MastersTeamUnlimited MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1561
If they lose-16→ 1529
If they win+16→ 1556
If they lose-16→ 1524
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1545 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1507 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Shaheen SantanaTristan Arenal
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Tristan Arenal51%
Shaheen Santana 49%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Tristan Arenal a 51% favorite over Shaheen Santana in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Shaheen Santana's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1545 vs 1540), separated by just 5 points.
Shaheen Santana enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Shaheen Santana finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Tristan Arenal 86%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.