Shamar Bailey vs Áureo Cruz
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-11-0Record3-1-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'10"
TBDReach63"
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
Sparta IndyTeamNew Generation MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1562
If they lose-12→ 1538
If they win+24→ 1573
If they lose-24→ 1525
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1516 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1522 · 4 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Shamar BaileyÁureo Cruz
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Áureo Cruz71%
Shamar Bailey 29%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Áureo Cruz a 71% favorite over Shamar Bailey in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Shamar Bailey's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1550 vs 1549), separated by just 1 points.
Shamar Bailey enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Shamar Bailey finishes 53% of wins inside the distance, Áureo Cruz 67%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.