Shane del Rosario vs Stipe Miocic
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-2-0Record20-5-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'4"
TBDReach 80"
246 lbsWeight234 lbs
Team OyamaTeamStrong Style Fight Team
What's at stake
Stipe Miocic is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Shane del Rosario carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+21→ 1677
If they lose-11→ 1645
If they win+11→ 1776
If they lose-21→ 1744
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1531 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1802 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Shane del RosarioStipe Miocic
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Stipe Miocic66%
Shane del Rosario 34%Elo baseline: 65%
The Combat Edge model makes Stipe Miocic a 66% favorite over Shane del Rosario in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (65%).
Stipe Miocic holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1765 to 1656, a 109-point edge.
Shane del Rosario enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Stipe Miocic enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Shane del Rosario finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Stipe Miocic 75%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.