Combat Edge Intelligence

Shane Roller vs TJ Grant

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-7-0Record21-5-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'10"
TBDReachTBD
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Team TakedownTeamFit Plus

What's at stake

TJ Grant is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Shane Roller carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Shane RollerNow 1636
If they win+17→ 1653
If they lose-15→ 1621
TJ GrantNow 1653
If they win+15→ 1668
If they lose-17→ 1636

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1633 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1648 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.04
Sig. strikes / min
3.95
34%
Strike accuracy
54%
2.65
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.21
60%
Strike defense
57%
2.46
Takedown avg.
1.63
34%
Takedown accuracy
44%
42%
Takedown defense
37%
1.92
Submission avg.
0.58

Trajectory

Shane RollerTJ Grant
1550160016502010201120122013

Win method breakdown

3 (27%)
KO/TKO
4 (19%)
6 (55%)
Submission
13 (62%)
2 (18%)
Decision
4 (19%)

Combat Edge model read

TJ Grant66%
Shane Roller 34%Elo baseline: 52%

The Combat Edge model makes TJ Grant a 66% favorite over Shane Roller in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).

TJ Grant holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1653 to 1636, a 17-point edge.

Shane Roller enters on a 2-fight win streak.

TJ Grant enters on a 5-fight win streak.

Shane Roller finishes 82% of wins inside the distance, TJ Grant 81%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.