Combat Edge Intelligence

Shane Roller vs Yanal Ashmouz

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-7-0Record8-2-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'9"
TBDReach68"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Team TakedownTeamK Dojo Warrior Tribe

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Shane RollerNow 1636
If they win+16→ 1652
If they lose-16→ 1620
Yanal AshmouzNow 1635
If they win+24→ 1659
If they lose-24→ 1611

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1633 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1578 · 9 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.04
Sig. strikes / min
2.94
34%
Strike accuracy
50%
2.65
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.54
60%
Strike defense
56%
2.46
Takedown avg.
4.80
34%
Takedown accuracy
50%
42%
Takedown defense
60%
1.92
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Shane RollerYanal Ashmouz
160016502010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

3 (27%)
KO/TKO
4 (50%)
6 (55%)
Submission
2 (25%)
2 (18%)
Decision
2 (25%)

Combat Edge model read

Yanal Ashmouz52%
Shane Roller 48%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Yanal Ashmouz a 52% favorite over Shane Roller in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Shane Roller's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1636 vs 1635), separated by just 1 points.

Shane Roller enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Shane Roller finishes 82% of wins inside the distance, Yanal Ashmouz 75%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.