Combat Edge Intelligence

Shannon Gugerty vs Spencer Fisher

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

15-7-0Record24-9-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'7"
TBDReachTBD
145 lbsWeight155 lbs
Victory MMATeamTBD

What's at stake

Spencer Fisher is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Shannon Gugerty carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Shannon GugertyNow 1535
If they win+21→ 1556
If they lose-11→ 1524
Spencer FisherNow 1654
If they win+8→ 1662
If they lose-16→ 1638

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1571 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1627 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.25
Sig. strikes / min
3.17
39%
Strike accuracy
44%
1.88
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.03
58%
Strike defense
64%
2.13
Takedown avg.
0.67
28%
Takedown accuracy
30%
50%
Takedown defense
60%
3.41
Submission avg.
0.75

Trajectory

Shannon GugertySpencer Fisher
15001550160016501700201020112012

Win method breakdown

4 (27%)
KO/TKO
10 (42%)
11 (73%)
Submission
9 (38%)
0 (0%)
Decision
5 (21%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Shannon Gugerty and Spencer Fisher within a point of even.

Spencer Fisher holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1654 to 1535, a 119-point edge.

Spencer Fisher enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Shannon Gugerty finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Spencer Fisher 79%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.