Shavkat Rakhmonov vs Stephen Thompson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
19-0-0Record17-9-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'1"Height6'0"
77"Reach75"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
What's at stake
Shavkat Rakhmonov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Stephen Thompson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+9→ 1864
If they lose-23→ 1832
If they win+23→ 1725
If they lose-9→ 1693
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1689 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1750 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Shavkat RakhmonovStephen Thompson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Shavkat Rakhmonov84%
Stephen Thompson 16%Elo baseline: 71%
The Combat Edge model makes Shavkat Rakhmonov a 84% favorite over Stephen Thompson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (71%).
Shavkat Rakhmonov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1855 to 1702, a 153-point edge.
Shavkat Rakhmonov enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Stephen Thompson enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Shavkat Rakhmonov finishes 95% of wins inside the distance, Stephen Thompson 53%.
Shavkat Rakhmonov and Stephen Thompson share 1 common opponent: Geoff Neal.
Shavkat Rakhmonov carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.