Sho Patrick Usami vs Yoshinori Horie
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
9-5-0Record15-6-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'8"
TBDReachTBD
156 lbsWeight156 lbs
Battle Box· 1580 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamAlliance-Square
What's at stake
Yoshinori Horie is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Sho Patrick Usami carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+20→ 1600
If they lose-12→ 1568
If they win+12→ 1670
If they lose-20→ 1638
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1545 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1623 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Sho Patrick UsamiYoshinori Horie
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Yoshinori Horie63%
Sho Patrick Usami 37%Elo baseline: 61%
The Combat Edge model makes Yoshinori Horie a 63% favorite over Sho Patrick Usami in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).
Yoshinori Horie holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1658 to 1580, a 78-point edge.
Sho Patrick Usami finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, Yoshinori Horie 46%.
Sho Patrick Usami and Yoshinori Horie share 1 common opponent: Yamato Nishikawa.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.