Sho Patrick Usami vs Yoshinori Horie
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Yoshinori Horie62%
Sho Patrick Usami 38%Elo baseline: 63%
The Combat Edge model makes Yoshinori Horie a 62% favorite over Sho Patrick Usami in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).
Yoshinori Horie holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1669 to 1577, a 92-point edge.
Yoshinori Horie enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Sho Patrick Usami finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Yoshinori Horie 50%.
Sho Patrick Usami and Yoshinori Horie share 1 common opponent: Yamato Nishikawa.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
9-6-0Record16-6-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'8"
70"Reach-
156 lbsWeight156 lbs
Battle Box· 1595 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamAlliance-Square
What's at stake
Yoshinori Horie is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Sho Patrick Usami carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+20→ 1597
If they lose-12→ 1565
If they win+12→ 1681
If they lose-20→ 1649
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1584 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1623 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Sho Patrick UsamiYoshinori Horie