Shota Nagano vs Will Ribeiro
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-6-0Record10-2-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'5"Height5'8"
-ReachTBD
133 lbsWeight135 lbs
Reversal Gym Musashi Kosugi Tokoro PlusTeamBoxe Thai
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1596
If they lose-16→ 1564
If they win+24→ 1606
If they lose-24→ 1558
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1494 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1534 · 8 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Shota NaganoWill Ribeiro
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Shota Nagano66%
Will Ribeiro 34%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Shota Nagano a 66% favorite over Will Ribeiro in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Will Ribeiro's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1580 vs 1582), separated by just 2 points.
Shota Nagano enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Shota Nagano finishes 58% of wins inside the distance, Will Ribeiro 70%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.