Combat Edge Intelligence

Spencer Fisher vs Thiago Alves

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

24-9-0Record23-15-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'7"Height5'10"
TBDReach70,0"
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
TBDTeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

Spencer Fisher is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Thiago Alves carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Spencer FisherNow 1654
If they win+9→ 1663
If they lose-15→ 1639
Thiago AlvesNow 1572
If they win+15→ 1587
If they lose-9→ 1563

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1627 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1650 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.17
Sig. strikes / min
3.73
44%
Strike accuracy
42%
3.03
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.42
64%
Strike defense
63%
0.67
Takedown avg.
0.71
30%
Takedown accuracy
61%
60%
Takedown defense
63%
0.75
Submission avg.
0.30

Trajectory

Spencer FisherThiago Alves
1600165017002010201120122013201420152016201720182019

Win method breakdown

10 (42%)
KO/TKO
13 (57%)
9 (38%)
Submission
1 (4%)
5 (21%)
Decision
9 (39%)

Combat Edge model read

Spencer Fisher60%
Thiago Alves 40%Elo baseline: 62%

The Combat Edge model makes Spencer Fisher a 60% favorite over Thiago Alves in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (62%).

Spencer Fisher holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1654 to 1572, a 82-point edge.

Spencer Fisher enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Thiago Alves enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Spencer Fisher finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Thiago Alves 61%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.