Combat Edge Intelligence

Stephen Costello vs Willie Parks

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

6-4-0Record5-2-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'1"Height5'10"
-ReachTBD
171 lbsWeight170 lbs
SBG IrelandTeamMean1 MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Stephen CostelloNow 1534
If they win+16→ 1550
If they lose-16→ 1518
Willie ParksNow 1535
If they win+24→ 1559
If they lose-24→ 1511

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1558 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1512 · 6 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
TBD
Strike accuracy
TBD
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
TBD
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
TBD
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Stephen CostelloWillie Parks
1500155016002011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

2 (33%)
KO/TKO
2 (40%)
2 (33%)
Submission
1 (20%)
2 (33%)
Decision
2 (40%)

Combat Edge model read

Stephen Costello70%
Willie Parks 30%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Stephen Costello a 70% favorite over Willie Parks in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Willie Parks's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1534 vs 1535), separated by just 1 points.

Stephen Costello finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Willie Parks 60%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.