Stephen Thompson vs Tyron Woodley
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-9-1Record19-7-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'9"
75"Reach74"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Team Upstate KarateTeamAmerican Top Team Evolution
What's at stake
Tyron Woodley is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Stephen Thompson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+19→ 1721
If they lose-13→ 1689
If they win+10→ 1784
If they lose-14→ 1760
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1749 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1761 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Stephen ThompsonTyron Woodley
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Tyron Woodley68%
Stephen Thompson 32%Elo baseline: 60%
The Combat Edge model makes Tyron Woodley a 68% favorite over Stephen Thompson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).
Tyron Woodley holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1774 to 1702, a 72-point edge.
Stephen Thompson enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Tyron Woodley enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Stephen Thompson finishes 53% of wins inside the distance, Tyron Woodley 63%.
Stephen Thompson and Tyron Woodley share 3 common opponents: Gilbert Burns, Vicente Luque and Darren Till.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.