Stephen Thompson vs Vicente Luque
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-9-1Record24-12-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'11"
75"Reach75″
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Team Upstate KarateTeamKill Cliff FC
What's at stake
Vicente Luque is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Stephen Thompson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1719
If they lose-15→ 1687
If they win+11→ 1734
If they lose-13→ 1710
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1749 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1731 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Stephen ThompsonVicente Luque
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Vicente Luque70%
Stephen Thompson 30%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Vicente Luque a 70% favorite over Stephen Thompson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Vicente Luque holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1723 to 1702, a 21-point edge.
Stephen Thompson enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Stephen Thompson finishes 53% of wins inside the distance, Vicente Luque 88%.
Stephen Thompson and Vicente Luque share 4 common opponents: Joaquin Buckley, Kevin Holland, Belal Muhammad and Geoff Neal.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.