Combat Edge Intelligence

Steve Lopez vs Taisei Mizusugi

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

13-6-1Record6-8-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'9"
TBDReach-
155 lbsWeight156 lbs
Syndicate MMATeamblooM

What's at stake

Taisei Mizusugi is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Steve Lopez carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Steve LopezNow 1417
If they win+28→ 1445
If they lose-20→ 1397
Taisei MizusugiNow 1470
If they win+14→ 1484
If they lose-18→ 1452

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1551 · 4 fightsPre-fight Elo1504 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.39
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
24%
Strike accuracy
TBD
2.69
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
62%
Strike defense
TBD
0
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
38%
Takedown defense
TBD
0
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Steve LopezTaisei Mizusugi
14001450150020102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (38%)
KO/TKO
2 (33%)
3 (23%)
Submission
1 (17%)
5 (38%)
Decision
3 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

Taisei Mizusugi83%
Steve Lopez 17%Elo baseline: 58%

The Combat Edge model makes Taisei Mizusugi a 83% favorite over Steve Lopez in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).

Taisei Mizusugi holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1470 to 1417, a 53-point edge.

Steve Lopez enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Steve Lopez finishes 62% of wins inside the distance, Taisei Mizusugi 50%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.