Combat Edge Intelligence

Steve Lopez vs Waylon Lowe

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

13-6-1Record16-7-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'7"
TBDReachTBD
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Syndicate MMATeamTBD

What's at stake

Waylon Lowe is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Steve Lopez carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Steve LopezNow 1417
If they win+34→ 1451
If they lose-14→ 1403
Waylon LoweNow 1571
If they win+14→ 1585
If they lose-34→ 1537

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1551 · 4 fightsPre-fight Elo1590 · 6 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.39
Sig. strikes / min
1.92
24%
Strike accuracy
56%
2.69
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.81
62%
Strike defense
53%
0
Takedown avg.
4.58
TBD
Takedown accuracy
52%
38%
Takedown defense
83%
0
Submission avg.
0.33

Trajectory

Steve LopezWaylon Lowe
14001450150015502010201120122013

Win method breakdown

5 (38%)
KO/TKO
7 (44%)
3 (23%)
Submission
3 (19%)
5 (38%)
Decision
6 (38%)

Combat Edge model read

Waylon Lowe76%
Steve Lopez 24%Elo baseline: 71%

The Combat Edge model makes Waylon Lowe a 76% favorite over Steve Lopez in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (71%).

Waylon Lowe holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1571 to 1417, a 154-point edge.

Steve Lopez enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Steve Lopez finishes 62% of wins inside the distance, Waylon Lowe 63%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.