Combat Edge Intelligence

Sultan Aliev vs Warlley Alves

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

15-3-0Record14-8-0
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'11"Height5'11"
40,0"Reach72,0"
170 lbsWeight186 lbs
American Top TeamTeamRizzo RVT

What's at stake

Sultan Aliev is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Warlley Alves carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Sultan AlievNow 1690
If they win+13→ 1703
If they lose-19→ 1671
Warlley AlvesNow 1626
If they win+19→ 1645
If they lose-13→ 1613

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1592 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1651 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.41
Sig. strikes / min
3.04
46%
Strike accuracy
48%
2.20
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.95
57%
Strike defense
51%
1.76
Takedown avg.
1.22
38%
Takedown accuracy
50%
100%
Takedown defense
63%
0
Submission avg.
0.85

Trajectory

Sultan AlievWarlley Alves
1650170020172018201920202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

10 (67%)
KO/TKO
4 (29%)
0 (0%)
Submission
6 (43%)
5 (33%)
Decision
4 (29%)

Combat Edge model read

Sultan Aliev75%
Warlley Alves 25%Elo baseline: 59%

The Combat Edge model makes Sultan Aliev a 75% favorite over Warlley Alves in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).

Sultan Aliev holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1690 to 1626, a 64-point edge.

Warlley Alves enters on a 5-fight loss streak.

Sultan Aliev finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Warlley Alves 71%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.