Taisei Mizusugi vs TJ O'Brien
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
6-8-0Record20-8-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height6'2"
-ReachTBD
156 lbsWeight155 lbs
blooMTeamDes Moines Jiu-Jitsu
What's at stake
Taisei Mizusugi is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — TJ O'Brien carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1485
If they lose-17→ 1453
If they win+25→ 1480
If they lose-23→ 1432
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1504 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1575 · 2 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Taisei MizusugiTJ O'Brien
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Taisei Mizusugi78%
TJ O'Brien 22%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes Taisei Mizusugi a 78% favorite over TJ O'Brien in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
Taisei Mizusugi holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1470 to 1455, a 15-point edge.
TJ O'Brien enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Taisei Mizusugi finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, TJ O'Brien 95%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.