Combat Edge Intelligence

Teemu Packalen vs Thibault Gouti

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

8-3-0Record17-7-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
6'1"Height5'10"
75,5"Reach41,5"
155 lbsWeight158 lbs
Finnfighters' GymTeamJackson-Wink MMA

What's at stake

Thibault Gouti is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Teemu Packalen carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Teemu PackalenNow 1610
If they win+18→ 1628
If they lose-14→ 1596
Thibault GoutiNow 1651
If they win+14→ 1665
If they lose-18→ 1633

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1571 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1587 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.57
Sig. strikes / min
3.68
54%
Strike accuracy
34%
3.91
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
5.64
48%
Strike defense
50%
2.31
Takedown avg.
1.23
25%
Takedown accuracy
80%
100%
Takedown defense
83%
1.54
Submission avg.
0.31

Trajectory

Teemu PackalenThibault Gouti
160016502018201920202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

2 (25%)
KO/TKO
7 (41%)
6 (75%)
Submission
6 (35%)
0 (0%)
Decision
4 (24%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Teemu Packalen and Thibault Gouti within a point of even.

Thibault Gouti holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1651 to 1610, a 41-point edge.

Teemu Packalen enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Teemu Packalen finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Thibault Gouti 76%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.