Thales Leites vs Tom Watson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
28-9-0Record17-9-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height6'1"
78,0"ReachTBD
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Nova UniaoTeamJackson-Wink MMA
What's at stake
Thales Leites is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Tom Watson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+8→ 1752
If they lose-16→ 1728
If they win+16→ 1651
If they lose-8→ 1627
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1713 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1650 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Thales LeitesTom Watson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Thales Leites70%
Tom Watson 30%Elo baseline: 65%
The Combat Edge model makes Thales Leites a 70% favorite over Tom Watson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (65%).
Thales Leites holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1744 to 1635, a 109-point edge.
Tom Watson enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Thales Leites finishes 68% of wins inside the distance, Tom Watson 53%.
Thales Leites and Tom Watson share 3 common opponents: Brad Tavares, Sam Alvey and Chris Camozzi.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.