Thales Leites vs Trevor Smith
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
28-9-0Record15-10-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height6'3"
78,0"Reach41,5"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Nova UniaoTeamRing Demon Jiu-Jitsu
What's at stake
Thales Leites is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Trevor Smith carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+7→ 1751
If they lose-17→ 1727
If they win+22→ 1622
If they lose-10→ 1590
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1713 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1662 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Thales LeitesTrevor Smith
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Thales Leites83%
Trevor Smith 17%Elo baseline: 70%
The Combat Edge model makes Thales Leites a 83% favorite over Trevor Smith in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (70%).
Thales Leites holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1744 to 1600, a 144-point edge.
Trevor Smith enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Thales Leites finishes 68% of wins inside the distance, Trevor Smith 67%.
Thales Leites and Trevor Smith share 1 common opponent: Chris Camozzi.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.