Thiago Alves vs Tony DeSouza
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-15-0Record11-4-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height6'0"
70,0"ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight169 lbs
American Top TeamTeamMillennia MMA
What's at stake
Tony DeSouza is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Thiago Alves carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1587
If they lose-9→ 1563
If they win+12→ 1669
If they lose-20→ 1637
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1650 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1555 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Thiago AlvesTony DeSouza
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Tony DeSouza63%
Thiago Alves 37%Elo baseline: 62%
The Combat Edge model makes Tony DeSouza a 63% favorite over Thiago Alves in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (62%).
Tony DeSouza holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1657 to 1572, a 85-point edge.
Thiago Alves enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Thiago Alves finishes 61% of wins inside the distance, Tony DeSouza 73%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.