Combat Edge Intelligence

Timothy Johnson vs Yorgan De Castro

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

18-10-0Record12-7-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'1"
77.50Reach74"
266 lbsWeight265 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamRegiment Training Center

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Timothy JohnsonNow 1586
If they win+24→ 1610
If they lose-24→ 1562
Yorgan De CastroNow 1583
If they win+16→ 1599
If they lose-16→ 1567

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1675 · 7 fightsPre-fight Elo1545 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.43
Sig. strikes / min
2.46
45%
Strike accuracy
44%
3.08
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.85
44%
Strike defense
54%
1.09
Takedown avg.
0
24%
Takedown accuracy
0%
69%
Takedown defense
78%
0
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Timothy JohnsonYorgan De Castro
155016002016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

10 (56%)
KO/TKO
9 (75%)
3 (17%)
Submission
1 (8%)
5 (28%)
Decision
2 (17%)

Combat Edge model read

Timothy Johnson66%
Yorgan De Castro 34%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Timothy Johnson a 66% favorite over Yorgan De Castro in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1586 vs 1583), separated by just 3 points.

Timothy Johnson finishes 72% of wins inside the distance, Yorgan De Castro 83%.

Timothy Johnson carries a 4-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.