TJ Dillashaw vs Vaughan Lee
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Vaughan Lee
Elo1507AverageTale of the tape
17-5-0Record14-14-1
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'6"Height5'5"
67"ReachTBD
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
The Treigning LabTeamUTC Birmingham
What's at stake
TJ Dillashaw is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Vaughan Lee carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+6→ 1769
If they lose-26→ 1737
If they win+20→ 1527
If they lose-4→ 1503
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1755 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1593 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
TJ DillashawVaughan Lee
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
TJ Dillashaw84%
Vaughan Lee 16%Elo baseline: 81%
The Combat Edge model makes TJ Dillashaw a 84% favorite over Vaughan Lee in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (81%).
TJ Dillashaw holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1763 to 1507, a 256-point edge.
Vaughan Lee enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
TJ Dillashaw finishes 65% of wins inside the distance, Vaughan Lee 79%.
TJ Dillashaw and Vaughan Lee share 1 common opponent: Raphael Assunção.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.