TJ Dillashaw vs Walel Watson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-5-0Record15-15-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'6"Height5'11"
67"ReachTBD
135 lbsWeight134 lbs
The Treigning LabTeamTeam Bodyshop
What's at stake
TJ Dillashaw is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +5 while a loss costs more — Walel Watson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+5→ 1768
If they lose-27→ 1736
If they win+20→ 1492
If they lose-4→ 1468
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1755 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1530 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
TJ DillashawWalel Watson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
TJ Dillashaw83%
Walel Watson 17%Elo baseline: 84%
The Combat Edge model makes TJ Dillashaw a 83% favorite over Walel Watson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (84%).
TJ Dillashaw holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1763 to 1472, a 291-point edge.
Walel Watson enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
TJ Dillashaw finishes 65% of wins inside the distance, Walel Watson 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.