Combat Edge Intelligence

TJ Waldburger vs Valeriy Dashkevich

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

16-9-0Record12-6-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'10"
TBDReach-
170 lbsWeight157 lbs
Grapplers Lair Fight TeamTeamFight Club Minsk

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

TJ WaldburgerNow 1592
If they win+16→ 1608
If they lose-16→ 1576
Valeriy DashkevichNow 1591
If they win+16→ 1607
If they lose-16→ 1575

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1648 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1545 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.02
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
51%
Strike accuracy
TBD
2.39
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
40%
Strike defense
TBD
3.03
Takedown avg.
TBD
46%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
40%
Takedown defense
TBD
4.79
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

TJ WaldburgerValeriy Dashkevich
15501600201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (6%)
KO/TKO
1 (8%)
13 (81%)
Submission
4 (33%)
2 (13%)
Decision
7 (58%)

Combat Edge model read

Valeriy Dashkevich66%
TJ Waldburger 34%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Valeriy Dashkevich a 66% favorite over TJ Waldburger in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans TJ Waldburger's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1592 vs 1591), separated by just 1 points.

TJ Waldburger enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

TJ Waldburger finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Valeriy Dashkevich 42%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.