Tom Aspinall vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-3-0Record17-3-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'5"Height6'4"
78"Reach78"
251 lbsWeight262 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1791
If they lose-16→ 1759
If they win+16→ 1795
If they lose-16→ 1763
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1701 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1716 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Tom AspinallWaldo Cortes-Acosta
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Waldo Cortes-Acosta60%
Tom Aspinall 40%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Waldo Cortes-Acosta a 60% favorite over Tom Aspinall in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1775 vs 1779), separated by just 4 points.
Tom Aspinall enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Tom Aspinall finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Waldo Cortes-Acosta 59%.
Tom Aspinall and Waldo Cortes-Acosta share 4 common opponents: Sergei Pavlovich, Alexander Volkov, Serghei Spivac and Andrei Arlovski.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.