Tom Nolan vs Victor Martinez
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-1-0Record13-6-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
6'2"Height5'10"
73"Reach70,0"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Team Compton Training CentreTeamFortis MMA
What's at stake
Tom Nolan is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Victor Martinez carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1737
If they lose-21→ 1705
If they win+21→ 1629
If they lose-11→ 1597
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1605 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1540 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Tom NolanVictor Martinez
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Tom Nolan92%
Victor Martinez 8%Elo baseline: 66%
The Combat Edge model makes Tom Nolan a 92% favorite over Victor Martinez in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (66%).
Tom Nolan holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1726 to 1608, a 118-point edge.
Tom Nolan enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Victor Martinez enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Tom Nolan finishes 55% of wins inside the distance, Victor Martinez 62%.
Tom Nolan carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.