Combat Edge Intelligence

Tumelo Manyamala vs Wilson Lopshire

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

8-2-0Record7-1-0
FlyweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'11"
70.5"Reach72"
125 lbsWeight156 lbs
Pride Fighting AcademyTeam Garra Brazilian Jiu Jitsu

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Tumelo ManyamalaNow 1626
If they win+16→ 1642
If they lose-16→ 1610
Wilson LopshireNow 1629
If they win+24→ 1653
If they lose-24→ 1605

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1518 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1506 · 8 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
TBD
Strike accuracy
TBD
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
TBD
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
TBD
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Tumelo ManyamalaWilson Lopshire
155016001650202420252026

Win method breakdown

6 (75%)
KO/TKO
2 (29%)
1 (13%)
Submission
5 (71%)
1 (13%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Wilson Lopshire51%
Tumelo Manyamala 49%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Wilson Lopshire a 51% favorite over Tumelo Manyamala in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1626 vs 1629), separated by just 3 points.

Tumelo Manyamala finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Wilson Lopshire 100%.

Wilson Lopshire carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.