Ulka Sasaki vs Willie Gates
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-10-2Record12-13-0
FeatherweightDivisionBantamweight
5'10"Height5'8"
71.00Reach39,0"
145 lbsWeight135 lbs
Serra-Longo Fight TeamTeamPinnacle MMA
What's at stake
Ulka Sasaki is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Willie Gates carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+12→ 1557
If they lose-20→ 1525
If they win+15→ 1481
If they lose-9→ 1457
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1644 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1550 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Ulka SasakiWillie Gates
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ulka Sasaki78%
Willie Gates 22%Elo baseline: 61%
The Combat Edge model makes Ulka Sasaki a 78% favorite over Willie Gates in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).
Ulka Sasaki holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1545 to 1466, a 79-point edge.
Ulka Sasaki enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Willie Gates enters on a 9-fight loss streak.
Ulka Sasaki finishes 58% of wins inside the distance, Willie Gates 75%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.