Wagner Silva vs Yusaku Kinoshita
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-8-0Record6-3-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height6'0"
TBDReach71,5"
185 lbsWeight170 lbs
Tata Fight Team· 1516 avg Elo · 4 ratedTeamPancrase Inagakigumi
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1537
If they lose-16→ 1505
If they win+16→ 1539
If they lose-16→ 1507
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1521 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1548 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Wagner SilvaYusaku Kinoshita
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Yusaku Kinoshita69%
Wagner Silva 31%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Yusaku Kinoshita a 69% favorite over Wagner Silva in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1521 vs 1523), separated by just 2 points.
Wagner Silva enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Yusaku Kinoshita enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Wagner Silva finishes 70% of wins inside the distance, Yusaku Kinoshita 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.