Waylon Lowe vs Willamy Freire
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-7-0Record26-6-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'7"Height5'8"
TBDReachTBD
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
TeamDragon Fight
What's at stake
Willamy Freire is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Waylon Lowe carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+27→ 1598
If they lose-21→ 1550
If they win+14→ 1635
If they lose-18→ 1603
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1589 · 6 fightsPre-fight Elo1506 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Waylon LoweWillamy Freire
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Willamy Freire56%
Waylon Lowe 44%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Willamy Freire a 56% favorite over Waylon Lowe in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Willamy Freire holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1621 to 1571, a 50-point edge.
Waylon Lowe finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Willamy Freire 72%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.