Combat Edge Intelligence

Yan Cabral vs Zak Cummings

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

15-3-0Record25-7-0
WelterweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'0"Height6'0"
73,0"ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight205 lbs
Aranha Barcelona BJJTeamFactory X

What's at stake

Zak Cummings is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Yan Cabral carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Yan CabralNow 1702
If they win+18→ 1720
If they lose-14→ 1688
Zak CummingsNow 1739
If they win+11→ 1750
If they lose-13→ 1726

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1593 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1677 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.02
Sig. strikes / min
2.96
48%
Strike accuracy
36%
1.98
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.91
62%
Strike defense
55%
2.89
Takedown avg.
0.62
36%
Takedown accuracy
28%
38%
Takedown defense
67%
1.24
Submission avg.
0.62

Trajectory

Yan CabralZak Cummings
170017502021202220232024

Win method breakdown

1 (7%)
KO/TKO
6 (24%)
13 (87%)
Submission
12 (48%)
1 (7%)
Decision
7 (28%)

Combat Edge model read

Zak Cummings63%
Yan Cabral 37%Elo baseline: 55%

The Combat Edge model makes Zak Cummings a 63% favorite over Yan Cabral in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).

Zak Cummings holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1739 to 1702, a 37-point edge.

Yan Cabral enters on a 3-fight win streak.

Zak Cummings enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Yan Cabral finishes 93% of wins inside the distance, Zak Cummings 72%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.