UFC Fight Night (UFC on ESPN+ 115) takes place on August 23 2025 at Shanghai Indoor Stadium in Shanghai, China. A light‑heavyweight showdown between Johnny Walker and rising Chinese star Mingyang Zhang will headline it. The card also features a catchweight co‑main event between former title challengers Brian Ortega and Aljamain Sterling, a heavyweight battle pitting Sergei Pavlovich against Waldo Cortes‑Acosta, a flyweight tilt between Su Mudaerji and Kevin Borjas and a welterweight debut of Taiyilake Nueraji against Kiefer Crosbie.

Below is a data‑driven look at each fight using Combat Edge statistics, supplemented with odds and context.

Johnny Walker (21‑9, 1 NC) vs Mingyang Zhang (19‑6) – light‑heavyweight main event

metric Walker Zhang narrative
Significant strikes landed/min 3.87 10.91 Zhang throws nearly three times as many significant strikes per minute as Walker.
Accuracy / defence 53 % accuracy; 44 % striking defence 64 % accuracy; 53 % defence Zhang’s 64 % accuracy would rank near the top of UFC stat leaders and dwarfs Walker’s 44 % defence.
Strikes absorbed/min 3.12 4.55 Walker is more durable but Zhang’s high volume means he still absorbs fewer strikes than he lands.
Takedowns (avg / accuracy / defence) 0.45 per 15 min; 100 % accuracy; 57 % defence 0; 0 % accuracy; 50 % defence Walker rarely grapples but is efficient when he shoots; Zhang has never attempted a UFC takedown.
Finishing record (wins) 16 KO/TKO, 3 submissions, 2 decisions 13 KO/TKO, 6 submissions, 0 decisions Both men are finishers – all of Zhang’s 19 wins are stoppages.
Stake.com odds +275 for Walker; underdog; over 1.5 rounds +230 -345 for Zhang; favourite; under 1.5 rounds –315 Betting markets heavily favour Zhang, projecting an early finish.

Narrative: Walker is a 6‑foot‑6 Brazilian known for explosive striking but he’s been knocked out in his last two fights. Combat Edge shows he lands only 3.87 significant strikes per minute, is hit nearly as often (3.12 per minute) and defends just 44 % of opponent strikes. Zhang, a 27‑year‑old Chinese prospect, lands 10.91 significant strikes per minute with a 64 % accuracy. His blitzing style produced first‑round stoppages in all four UFC fights and all 19 career wins are finishes. Oddsmakers list Zhang around –340 to –345, while Walker is a +275 to +270 underdog. The betting total of 1½ rounds underscores expectations of a quick outcome. Because Walker’s takedown threat is minimal and his striking defence is porous, any early mistake could be costly. Zhang’s only vulnerability is his untested cardio; if Walker survives the initial storm, his 7‑inch reach advantage (82 in vs 75 in) might become a factor.

Brian Ortega (16‑4, 1 NC) vs Aljamain Sterling (24‑5) – catchweight (153 lb) co‑main event

metric Ortega Sterling narrative
Significant strikes landed/min 4.08 4.41 Sterling edges Ortega in volume. He throws 4.41 per minute compared with Ortega’s 4.08.
Accuracy / defence 38 % accuracy, 50 % striking defence 52 % accuracy, 59 % defence Sterling is more efficient and harder to hit.
Strikes absorbed/min 6.59 2.21 Ortega absorbs three times as many strikes as Sterling.
Takedowns (avg / accuracy / defence) 1.07 / 26 % / 56 % 2.51 / 30 % / 43 % Sterling averages more than twice as many takedowns.
Submissions attempted 1.07 per 15 min 0.69 per 15 min Ortega’s submission attempts are high, but Sterling’s control may limit them if he does decide to go for takedowns
Win distribution 3 KO/TKO, 8 submissions, 5 decisions 3 KO/TKO, 8 submissions, 12 decisions Both are elite grapplers; Sterling has more decision wins.
Stake.com odds +250 to +225 underdog -310 to -278 favourite Sterling is favoured in a bout expected to last, with the total set at 4½ rounds.

Narrative: This 153‑pound catchweight bout pits two of the division’s craftiest grapplers. Ortega’s guillotine and triangle chokes have produced eight submission wins, but his striking defence is a liability; he absorbs 6.59 significant strikes per minute and has been hit over 200 times in past fights. Sterling, a former bantamweight champion, lands more strikes per minute (4.41 vs 4.08) with far greater accuracy (52 %) and absorbs only 2.21. His wrestling—2.51 takedowns per 15 minutes—could allow him to control position and avoid Ortega’s submissions if he does go for them. DraftKings lists Sterling around –310 and the over‑4½‑rounds total at –215, indicating bettors expect a decision. Sterling’s improved striking and ability to land more than Ortega makes him the rightful favourite. However, Ortega’s finishing threat remains live in scrambles, making a late submission upset plausible.

Sergei Pavlovich (19‑3) vs Waldo Cortes‑Acosta (14‑1) – heavyweight bout

metric Pavlovich Cortes‑Acosta narrative
Significant strikes landed/min 5.86 5.98 Both heavyweights throw similar volume.
Accuracy / defence 44 % accuracy; 52 % defence 49 % accuracy; 56 % defence Cortes‑Acosta is slightly more accurate and defensively sound.
Strikes absorbed/min 5.03 3.43 Pavlovich is hit more often.
Takedowns (avg / accuracy / defence) 0 / 0 % / 75 % 0.42 / 50 % / 67 % Cortes‑Acosta mixes in occasional takedowns.
Finishing record (wins) 15 KO/TKO, 0 subs, 4 decisions 6 KO/TKO, 1 sub, 7 decisions Pavlovich is a knockout artist; Cortes‑Acosta wins more decisions.
Physical stats 6 ft 3, 84 in reach 6 ft 4, 78 in reach Pavlovich has a six‑inch reach advantage.
Stake.com odds -258 to -245 favourite +210 to +200 underdog Bettors slightly favour Pavlovich; the total is 1½ rounds.

Narrative: Pavlovich climbed into heavyweight title contention by blitzing opponents with 15 knockouts, but his last two fights went the distance. Combat Edge shows he lands 5.86 significant strikes per minute but absorbs 5.03; he has zero takedown attempts and relies on power. Cortes‑Acosta, riding a five‑fight winning streak, matches Pavlovich’s output and defends 56 % of opponent strikes. Of note, he landed 111 strikes against Serghei Spivac and defended four of six takedowns, showing improved wrestling. With a one‑inch height advantage but six‑inch reach disadvantage, the Dominican underdog must navigate Pavlovich’s long jab and avoid early bombs. Oddsmakers price Pavlovich around –245 to –258, with the over 1½ rounds at –180.

Su Mudaerji (17‑7) vs Kevin Borjas (10‑3) – flyweight showcase

metric Su Mudaerji Kevin Borjas narrative
Significant strikes landed/min 4.4 5.1 Borjas throws slightly more strikes, but Mudaerji is more efficient.
Accuracy / defence 51 % accuracy; 60 % defence 45 % accuracy; 51 % defence Mudaerji has superior accuracy and defence.
Strikes absorbed/min 2.63 5.99 Borjas absorbs more than twice as many strikes.
Takedowns (avg / accuracy / defence) 0.18 / 25 % / 68 % 0 / 0 % / 65 % Mudaerji attempts occasional takedowns; Borjas has not.
Win distribution 13 KO/TKO, 1 sub, 3 decisions 8 KO/TKO, 0 sub, 2 decisions Mudaerji has more experience and more finishes.
Recent form Coming off split‑decision win; 14 career finishes (13 KO/TKO, 1 SUB) Coming off unanimous‑decision win; 8 career KO/TKOs Mudaerji is known for volume and durability, while Borjas relies on pressure and power.
Stake.com odds -180 to -166 favourite +150 to +140 underdog Odds favour Mudaerji; over 2½ rounds priced at -270.

Narrative: Mudaerji, a Chinese striker, combines 51 % accuracy and 60 % defence with just 2.63 significant strikes absorbed per minute. His 14 finishes (13 KO/TKOs) suggest fight‑ending power, yet he often goes the distance when opponents survive his flurries. Borjas, a Peruvian prospect, averages 5.1 significant strikes per minute but absorbs 5.99. Mudaerji’s relentless pressure and improved takedown defence could wear Borjas down. Stake lists Mudaerji as a roughly –180 favourite with the fight expected to last over 2½ rounds.

Taiyilake Nueraji (11‑1, 1 NC) vs Kiefer Crosbie (10‑5) – welterweight curtain‑raiser

metric Taiyilake Nueraji Kiefer Crosbie narrative
Significant strikes landed/min 11.01 6.61 Nueraji’s rate is the highest on the card, almost twice that of Crosbie.
Accuracy / defence 49 % accuracy; 59 % defence 52 % accuracy; 51 % defence Crosbie is slightly more accurate
Strikes absorbed/min 7.39 6.49 Both are willing to brawl; defence will be tested.
Takedowns (avg / accuracy / defence) 0 / 0 % / 0 % 0.69 / 40 % / 100 % Nueraji rarely wrestles; Crosbie mixes in occasional takedowns.
Finishing record 10 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 0 decisions 5 KO/TKO, 2 submissions, 3 decisions Nueraji finishes almost all his wins early.
Physical stats 6 ft 2, 75 in reach 5 ft 11, 72 in reach Nueraji holds size and reach advantages.
Freepicks scouting 11‑1 record with 10 knockouts; estimated >5 significant strikes/min; 83 % finish rate 10‑5 record; 4.2 significant strikes per minute at 55 % accuracy; 60 % strike defence; 0 % takedown defence Nueraji is a regional knockout artist; Crosbie is a boxing specialist with glaring grappling holes.
Stake.com Odds -360 to -440 favourite +285 to +340 underdog Markets expect a quick finish; over/under 1½ rounds at –200 to +154.

Narrative: Nueraji, nicknamed “Super Saiyan”, steps up from the Road to UFC series to fight at home. Combat Edge shows he lands 11.01 significant strikes per minute—more than any fighter on the card—and holds a 49 % accuracy with a 59 % defence. He is 24 years old, stands 6 ft 2 with a 75‑inch reach and boasts 10 knockouts in 11 wins. His opponent, Irish veteran Crosbie, is 0‑2 in the UFC and has been submitted in both bouts. Combat Edge shows he attempts 0.69 takedowns per 15 minutes but has never attempted a submission and his takedown defence is 100 %. We highlight his crisp boxing (4.2 strikes per minute at 55 % accuracy) but warns of his 0 % takedown defence in previous fights. Betting lines price Nueraji as a heavy –360 to –440 favourite with the under 1½ rounds at –200. A violent debut seems likely unless Crosbie’s experience and boxing can drag the fight into later rounds.

Conclusion

UFC Fight Night 257 brings the UFC back to mainland China. The card is engineered to showcase regional talent while testing established contenders. Data from Combat Edge reveal stark contrasts: Zhang’s striking output (10.91 significant strikes per minute) dwarfs Walker’s 3.87, while Nueraji’s 11.01 is off the charts. Sterling’s accuracy (52 %) and defensive stats make him a justified favourite over Ortega, and Pavlovich’s knockout pedigree must contend with Cortes‑Acosta’s improved defence. Flyweights Su Mudaerji and Kevin Borjas could deliver a high‑volume striking battle, with Mudaerji’s 60 % defence and 2.63 strikes absorbed per minute offering a statistical edge.

From a betting perspective, the market expects quick finishes in the main event and the Nueraji–Crosbie bout (totals at 1½ rounds). Conversely, the co‑main event’s 4½‑round line signals confidence in a tactical, grappling‑heavy battle. As always, stylistic nuance matters: Zhang’s ferocious pace could overwhelm Walker early; Sterling’s wrestling may suffocate Ortega; Pavlovich must beware a crafty underdog; and China’s up‑and‑comers Mudaerji and Nueraji look poised to electrify the Shanghai crowd. The numbers reveal where each fighter shines and where they are vulnerable—making UFC Fight Night 257 a compelling card for statistics‑minded fans and bettors alike.