Pavel Gordeev vs Amirkhan Adaev
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Pavel Gordeev64%
Amirkhan Adaev 36%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Pavel Gordeev a 64% favorite over Amirkhan Adaev in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Pavel Gordeev holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1707 to 1685, a 22-point edge.
Pavel Gordeev enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Pavel Gordeev finishes 33% of wins inside the distance, Amirkhan Adaev 50%.
Pavel Gordeev and Amirkhan Adaev share 2 common opponents: Viktor Makarenko and Alexander Matmuratov.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
24-7-0Record23-7-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height5'10"
71" Reach-
157 lbsWeight157 lbs
Archangel Michael Club· 1777 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamBerkut FC· 1632 avg Elo · 3 rated
What's at stake
Pavel Gordeev is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Amirkhan Adaev carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1718
If they lose-13→ 1694
If they win+13→ 1698
If they lose-11→ 1674
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1634 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1581 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Pavel GordeevAmirkhan Adaev
Win method breakdown
Common opponents (2)
WinDecision (Unanimous) · 2025
WinDecision (Unanimous) · 2024