Combat Edge Model · Full card

PFL Dubai: Nemkov vs Bilostenniy predictions

Model win probabilities for every bout on PFL Dubai: Nemkov vs Bilostenniy (November 14, 2026), computed from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. Forecasts freeze before fight night and every result is graded on the public accuracy tracker. Analytics, not betting advice.

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14Total bouts

14Frozen forecasts

2Close matchups

7Model / Elo splits

1Strong model leans

OpenPicks close at start

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Scan every matchup, isolate close calls, or find where the full model and Elo baseline see different winners.

Showing all 14 matchups.

Main card

Main card predictions

5 matchups · model probability, Elo baseline, fighter records, and your pick in one place.

PFL Heavyweight World Titlev0.8-2026-10-04

Vadim Nemkov20-2-0

Sergey Bilostenniy15-4-0

Model leanModel + Elo agree

57%Vadim Nemkov43%Sergey Bilostenniy

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 65% / 36%

Welterweightv0.8-2026-10-04

Patrick Habirora9-0-0

Omar El Dafrawy16-6-0

Model leanModel + Elo agree

58%Patrick Habirora43%Omar El Dafrawy

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 59% / 41%

Heavyweightv0.8-2026-10-04

Pouya Rahmani5-0-0

Oleg Popov23-2-0

Model leanModel + Elo agree

34%Pouya Rahmani66%Oleg Popov

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 32% / 68%

Welterweightv0.8-2026-10-04

Abubakar Nurmagomedov17-4-1

David Martinez17-6-0

Model leanModel / Elo split

34%Abubakar Nurmagomedov66%David Martinez

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 57% / 43%

Bantamweighv0.8-2026-10-04

Sergio Pettis25-8-0

Joji Goto20-9-0

Model leanModel + Elo agree

58%Sergio Pettis42%Joji Goto

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 67% / 33%

Prelims

Prelims predictions

9 matchups · model probability, Elo baseline, fighter records, and your pick in one place.

Lightweightv0.8-2026-10-04

Shaqueme Rock11-3-1

Connor Hughes12-3-0

Close matchupModel / Elo split

48%Shaqueme Rock52%Connor Hughes

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 51% / 49%

Bantamweightv0.8-2026-10-04

Lewis McGrillen13-2-0

Nawras Abzakh15-6-0

Strong model leanModel + Elo agree

72%Lewis McGrillen28%Nawras Abzakh

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 57% / 43%

Featherweightv0.8-2026-10-04

Asaël Adjoudj11-1-0

Movlid Khaybulaev23-0-1

Close matchupModel / Elo split

53%Asaël Adjoudj47%Movlid Khaybulaev

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 32% / 68%

Lightweightv0.8-2026-10-04

Alexei Pergande8-0-0

Akhmed Magomedov10-2-0

Model leanModel / Elo split

58%Alexei Pergande42%Akhmed Magomedov

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 49% / 51%

Featherweightv0.8-2026-10-04

Khasan Magomedsharipov11-0-0

Ádám Borics20-4-0

Model leanModel / Elo split

59%Khasan Magomedsharipov41%Ádám Borics

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 48% / 52%

Heavyweightv0.8-2026-10-04

Denis Goltsov37-9-0

Maxwell Djantou Nana9-2-0

Model leanModel + Elo agree

60%Denis Goltsov40%Maxwell Djantou Nana

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 69% / 31%

Welterweightv0.8-2026-10-04

Ernesto Rodriguez11-2-0

Rhys McKee15-7-1

Model leanModel + Elo agree

59%Ernesto Rodriguez41%Rhys McKee

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 52% / 48%

Light Heavyweightv0.8-2026-10-04

Khabib Nabiev12-0-0

Styve Ngono8-1-0

Model leanModel / Elo split

43%Khabib Nabiev58%Styve Ngono

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 61% / 39%

Women's Strawweightv0.8-2026-10-04

Aleksandra Savicheva8-2-0

Jacinta Austin9-2-0

Model leanModel / Elo split

56%Aleksandra Savicheva44%Jacinta Austin

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 46% / 54%