Pavel Gordeev vs Dakota Bush
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Pavel Gordeev65%
Dakota Bush 35%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Pavel Gordeev a 65% favorite over Dakota Bush in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Dakota Bush's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1707 vs 1709), separated by just 2 points.
Pavel Gordeev enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Dakota Bush enters on a 9-fight win streak.
Pavel Gordeev finishes 33% of wins inside the distance, Dakota Bush 53%.
Dakota Bush carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
24-7-0Record17-4-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'10"
71" Reach73"
157 lbsWeight155 lbs
Archangel Michael Club· 1777 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamThe Smith Pit
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1719
If they lose-12→ 1695
If they win+16→ 1725
If they lose-16→ 1693
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1634 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1579 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Pavel GordeevDakota Bush