Pavel Gordeev vs Juan Pablo Vieira
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Pavel Gordeev64%
Juan Pablo Vieira 36%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Pavel Gordeev a 64% favorite over Juan Pablo Vieira in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Juan Pablo Vieira's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1707 vs 1709), separated by just 2 points.
Pavel Gordeev enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Juan Pablo Vieira enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Pavel Gordeev finishes 33% of wins inside the distance, Juan Pablo Vieira 100%.
Juan Pablo Vieira carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
24-7-0Record10-0-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'11"
71" Reach75"
157 lbsWeight155 lbs
Archangel Michael Club· 1777 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamDyogo Teles MMA· 1618 avg Elo · 3 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1719
If they lose-12→ 1695
If they win+16→ 1725
If they lose-16→ 1693
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1634 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1505 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Pavel GordeevJuan Pablo Vieira